The Return of Jamal Murray: A Deep Dive Into Denver's Second Star

Jamal Murray is primed to make his return to the court this upcoming season after missing the last season and a half, including two full postseasons, with an ACL tear. Prior to him going down the Nuggets were on a 6-1 run after trading for Aaron Gordon, prompting a front page Lowe love-fest and a number of analysts and predictive models to pick Denver as favorites to come out of the West. Not a wholy unreasonable take considering they looked like a top-to-bottom better team than they were less than six months ago as they battled the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

While Denver managed to find some success in their post-Murray reality via a Round 1 victory over Portland in 20-21, it was hardly satisfying for a team that felt like had as good of a chance as anyone to compete for a championship that year. Even though Nikola Jokic won the MVP, Murray's injury left a dark cloud hanging over the organization. Maybe that's what was keeping Nuggets games blacked out for the entire state.

Coming into the next season there was optimism that Murray would be back after the All-Star break. That would have brought a much needed boost to an overclocked Nuggets team who nine games into the season found themselves without Michael Porter Jr. as well. Despite continued rumors that Murray was going to make his return as the regular season neared its end, the front office and training staff opted to remain careful with the rehab process of their second in command and not rush him back before he felt he was 100 percent. The Nuggets finished with a 48 win season in in which they set a franchise record for wins on the road, and Nikola Jokic picked up his 2nd MVP in as many years.

While that's a remarkable achievement on both counts, for the fans and for the team it was another unfortunate postseason marked by incredible play from Nikola Jokic but overshadowed by a great deal of frustration knowing that there is this squad that is spearheaded by the back-to-back MVP entering his prime, blocked off from capably competing until their second and third highest paid and highest scoring players get right.

While it seemed that at least Murray might have been able to play limited minutes, the Nuggets banked on a cautious approach that should lead to a fully healthy and physically stronger version of both of these guys come opening night. Prior to going down Murray was putting together his best season as a pro and one of the more exciting postseason runs of all time, and MPJ was coming off the 2nd most efficient rookie season of all time for players averaging over 17ppg. Second to, of course, Wilt Chamberlain.

Coming back from this much time off can put you out of the mind of a lot of NBA fans, so let's take a look at what Murray was bringing to the table before he went down, and what his return means the Nuggets.

Jamal Murray's Scoring

No matter how long he's been away, most of you reading this will remember his bubble performance where he put on one of the most exciting postseason runs in recent memory. Say what you will about the bubble, putting up a 3 game stretch against Utah of 50/11/7 on 58/70/100 with no turnovers, 42/8/8 on 65/50/100 with no turnovers, and 50/6/5 on 71/75/78 is remarkable no matter what time of year or setting. Not to mention a 40 point game seven performance on equally stellar shooting splits againt the Clippers in the next series.

They may also recall the following season prior to his injury he became the first player in NBA history to score 50 points with no free throws attempted, shooting 21-25 from the floor and 8-10 from three. That was his seventh game of that season of 30 points or more on over 50% from the field.

While those moments are incredible on their own, it's rare to see Murray mentioned with the best scorers in the league. That's understandable as last season was Murray's first season averaging over 20ppg (48/41/88 splits), he has never been an All-Star, he has never made an All-NBA team, he is his team's secondary scoring option, and the Nuggets simply aren't on TV very often enough to warrant an eye-test > box score type of situation. That's a tough argument to make even to the most ardent Nuggets fan.

Luckily for this article's sake as you dive deeper into the data on Murray, specifically the tracking data, it becomes apparent that the Nuggets are bringing back an All-Star (and if given the volume All-NBA) level scoring talent.

That's a remarkably bold claim to make and certainly one that needs some pretty significant evidence to back it up.

To start making the case for Jamal Murray, "All-Star+ Level Scorer", let's first take a look at his perimeter shooting.

The following data is from Murray's 20-21 season and provided by Bball Index.

Perimeter Shooting Compared To Entire League

Those percentages and associated grades indicate that Jamal Murray is an all-tools distance shooter. Other players who graded out similarly across those five statistics were guys like Kyrie Irving, Paul George, and Khris Middleton. The only players grading out higher than him in 20-21 were the likes of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Zach LaVine. A similar case when compared to shooters this season as well.

For me I initially question whether or not that's a byproduct of being open more than other players, as the overall offensive gravity of Jokic has to be measured on a planetary scale. Put another way, are Murray's shooting percentages so high because he's getting uniquely high quality looks compared to these other players?

The answer to that is "kind of, but not really."

Murray does get better looks than the guys I've mentioned for the most part. Guys like Durant, Curry, and LaVine only saw an open three-point shot (defender no closer than 4ft) on around 8-10% of their attempts. That grades out as a rock bottom F, which makes sense considering defenses are primarily keying in on stopping those guys from shooting those shots. Given the types of shots that they do get up, the Shot Quality and Openness Rating (an estimation of how open a player's 3pt attempts are on average) that all of these elite 5-cat 3pt shooters are seeing, tend to be the worst percentile grades possible.

In other words, most of the highest graded perimeter scorers are seeing the least open looks.

For example, Curry grades out out fantastically on all of his distance shooting percentages. Naturally. He also has the worst Openness Rating in the league, the worst 3pt Shot Quality in the league, and one of the worst percentages of 3PTAs open in the league as well. That of course makes it that much more impressive that his shooting percentages remain so high, and why he ends up grading out #1 among all perimeter shooters, but a bit more on those calculations later.

Murray, while grading out excellently with his shooting percentages, definitely isn't seeing the kind of coverages and defensive suction that Curry does on a nightly basis. Only 10% of Curry's 3PTAs were classified as open last year, compared to Murray who saw a wide open look 14% of the time.

Steph's average shot distance was almost 27ft compared to Murray who's typical shot measured out just under 26ft. A longer shot is a more difficult shot, and for Curry those longer shots are a result of backing up to try and get more space from defenders. Curry also shoots 4% more C&S threes than Murray and 4% less threes from the corner. That may indicate that his shot types are more often needing to be released quicker and from a more difficult spot on the floor than are Murray's.

While Curry is an extreme example other players like KD, LaVine, and George are closer to Curry's Quality and Openness rating than they are to Murray. Even someone like Kyrie who is 1b on offense, an all-timer at creating space, and very good at moving off the ball is about half-way in between Curry and Murray's grades.

That doesn't mean that Murray isn't capable of making those shots, but it does mean that in general he is getting better looks. A large part of that is that it greatly helps to have a great screener like Jokic who in addition to being a big body that defenders have to get around, is also a dangerous option in every conceivable way were the ball to find him instead of Murray.

For pull-up 3s a simple high PNR like this is something you'll see Murray run with Jokic multiple times a game.

Landry gets caught on the screen from some Jokic hands, but also is physical with him to stop him from straight diving to the rim for an easy bucket. Allen does a good job of picking Jokic back up, but that's because he opts not to stick on Murray due in part to the danger of Jokic, leaving Landry to scramble back for a contest on Murray's pull up.

Here's another example of this against the Wizards.

This starts with a half-hearted screen by Morris on Wagner, the beginning of an action that usually sees Jokic dive to the low block and get an entry pass. Wagner goes under the "screen" to prevent this, Jokic recognizes that and goes to set the screen on Beal knowing Wagner won't be in a spot to contest a three, Beal does a good job of spinning off the screen and getting a good contest on Murray who knocks it down anyway.

Jokic will also set multiple screens or feint them in order to generate pull up opportunities for Murray.

Here we see Jokic behind the play coming up to set a screen for Murray to drive towards the middle of the floor. MPJ swaps from the corner with Facu to come up to the wing as an option for Murray to pass out to in case Bembry helps down. Baynes, assuming Murray is going to use that screen takes a big step down into the paint to contain it. FVV fights over the screen and stuffs Murray here assuming that it's just a standard high PNR to get Murray going to the right.

However the action the entire time, or at least a very standard option off of it, was for Jokic to feint that screen to get FVV's momentum committed to containing Murray going right, immediately flipping around and tracking where that left Fred, setting the real screen/be a big pylon the defender has to navigate, and getting Murray a pull up three in rhythm.

However as Kia Nurse points out in that clip, that still resulted in a pretty difficult shot. Even when moving off-ball and using a screen, he still sees defenses committing hard to contest.

This is where we get to that "kind of, but not really" half-answer I gave earlier.

When looking at the entirety of the league and even when comparing him solely to primary ball handlers, Murray still grades out near the bottom of the league in Openness Rating (19th percentile/F), Percentage of 3PTA Open (21st percentile/D-), and 3PT Shot Quality (24th percentile/D-). So while he is getting more open shots and better looks at a higher rate than some of his All-NBA co-workers, he is still seeing very few compared to everyone but the very best perimeter scorers in the league.

This is properly reflected in his cumulative perimeter shooting grade.

Taking everything into consideration, Murray does grade out as one of the very best perimeter shooters and scorers in the entire NBA.

3PT Shot Making is an estimation of a player's proficiency in shooting 3-point shots given their degree of difficulty. With Murray back in the mix, Denver will be getting back one of the better shooters in the league, particularly in regards to difficult or contested shots. That means Jokic does not have to be the panic button for every single play or the only person you can rely on to get a bucket against tough coverages.

At the end of a shot clock, the Nuggets can be comfortable with the ball in Murray's hands as he has proven to consistently make tough shots.

Here he is against Matisse Thybulle with the shot clock winding down, Thybulle sticks right with him on a step back, but Murray remains uneffected and drains it anyway.

Similarly at the end of a game, the Nuggets can go to Murray just as they do Jokic.

He is likely an even better option if they need a three like they did here against the Wizards, as he drains a 30 footer over Hachimura.

Murray is also an excellent C&S player who moves well without the ball and is able to find his shooting base quickly.

Among qualified players, Murray grades out as an 89th percentile C&S 3PT Talent.

He's very good coming off a screen like the above example, but maybe even better curling around one for a drop off/handoff pass and quick shot over the screening action.

Murray makes 1.02 points per handoff possession which grades out in the 95th percentile.

He is a dangerous transition option from distance as well, often flaring out for an open shot.

Additionally he rarely rushes these attempts, stays in control, and is great at finding the space he needs as a result.

An even better example Murray's patience is on this play that ends up forcing OT vs. Chicago.

Shot Creation captures a player's ability to self-create their 3-point attempts, looking at the % of their 3PT shots unassisted and their unassisted volume per 100 possessions. A 98th percentile grade in self-creation in addition to the Shot Making suggests he is a tier-1 go-to scorer from distance.

A defense has to key in on Murray as if he were the #1 scoting option once he crosses half-court. We've seen that in a lot of these associated clips but unless you're watching a lot of Nuggets games you may not be aware of just how often Murray scores on creating separation from defenders off the dribble without the use of a screen.

By far his most used move for separation is a one dribble move where he plants his right foot before stepping back.

Here Oubre opens up his base to run with Jamal if he decides to drive left, allowing him to do a quick in dribble and step back three.

When a big switches onto Murray, he will threaten with the drive in order to create space for the stepback.

Portis plays deep which causes Craig to have to switch onto Jokic once Jokic spaces out. Murray gets the mismatch and instead of trying to post Jokic with 10s on the clock, crosses over for a baseline drive before stepping back for a corner three.

If a big like Gobert has switched out on him and he doesn't threaten with a drive, he also likes to plant off his left foot to create more space into a fadeaway.

Murray also reads defensive breakdowns very well and can quickly capitalize on them.

Bridges stays with Jokic on the screen instead of sticking with Murray, Ayton is playing the lane and doesn't switch out to Murray who notices this and takes a dribble in that destabalizes Ayton and allows Murray to create a ton of space for a step back three.

Someone who is able to get their own shot like Murray does is what Denver missed most last year. Outside of Jokic, the Nuggets were one of the worst teams in the league in self-created offense. The top perimeter scorers and playmakers for the Nuggets last season were Morris and Barton, both shot 60% or more of their three pointers off of C&S and shot in the low 30% on their few pull-up 3PTAs. This helped defenses to contain their drives more consistently, as they were not a significant threat to pull up above the break.

At times the Nuggets offense was effectively frozen, as Aaron Gordon and Jeff Green are not great self creation guys either. To make matters worse even when players found themselves open, there was very little consistency in the overall shot making of the team. The Nuggets generated the 6th most open looks from 3 in the league last year but finished 17th in 3pt%.

With no self-creators outside of Jokic, the Nuggets ended up having having the lowest scoring 2nd option in the league: Gordon at 15ppg. Not OKC (Dort 17.2), not Houston (Green 17.3), not Orlando (Wagner 15.2), but the Nuggets.

Now with Murray (and MPJ) back in the mix the Nuggets have a perimeter shooting threat for every second of the shot clock, who will reliably make his open shots, makes his contested threes at a higher rate than players last year made their open looks, and more importantly is someone who can be effective without Jokic on the floor.

In the past this allowed the Nuggets to stagger Murray and Jokic to ensure that there wouldn't be endless possessions of motionless gunk resulting in a low quality looks, turnover sprees, and shot clock violations, or as it was known for most of last year, "bench minutes."

However, Murray will need to be more than a perimeter threat to help push the Nuggets back to contending status in an increasingly talented West.

Jamal Murray's Finishing

While distance shooting is the most noteworthy part of Murray's scoring, his ability to finish at the rim is reliable if not undervalued.

Murray grades out as a far above average finisher overall, overcoming a number of variables that set him back in this calculation.

While Murray is known to have some [wild finishes]((https://www.youtube.com/embed/RPg7fBt6X7I), and drives into the paint at a very solid 9 times per 75 possessions, the biggest barrier to him being graded as highly as his outside shooting is the volume of shots he takes on those drives.

Murray only takes about 3 FGAs at the rim per 75, leaving him in the 33rd percentile for total shots at the rim. This would be a major drawback if it was leading to turnovers or he was a poor drive and kick player, but around 36% of his drives result in a passout to a teammate and his driving creation rests at a pretty average rate.

Murray is a great athlete and can throw one down when he wants to, but at 6'3" and without elite explosion, strength, or handles, he doesn't look for a ton opportunities at the rim. Part of that may be a conscious choice or a function of his shooting being a better option, or having Jokic as an option to pass to once he's in there, but I think he has it in him to increase his attempts going forward.

He is also not a contact seeking player. In 20-21 he only drew contact on about 6% of his attempts in the paint and when fouled only converted about 16% of those to an and-one. That conversion rate is only in the 28th percentile. He seems to prefer being a contortionist who finds a way to avoid the defender and make the shot. That's where we can start understanding how he grades so highly despite the potential drawbacks.

He starts to build his case for being a high quality finisher via conversion rate. He makes an exceptional amount of his attempts at the rim: 71.54% when adjusted for the volume. Additionally his Rim Shot Quality grade shows that he's not getting the amount of quality looks that would result such a high percentage.

Murray has good touch over taller defenders when he gets in the paint.

Here he finds the high angle off glass over Randle with the left hand instead of opting for a righty floater.

Here we can see a Murray drive on Gobert.

Conley is flat footed after avoiding the screen which allows Murray to drive into the paint, noticing Gobert loading up to contest the shot on the right side of the glass, Murray opts to go under and use the rim to block Gobert off resulting in a nice reverse finish.

While highlight finishes and heavily contested dunks may not be an every night occurance, he is regularly converting in fairly tough situations. This results in an excellent grade for Rim Shot Making, which is a player's ability to finish, adjusted for degree of difficulty and where the shot is taken from.

Most of his made buckets at the basket are also unassisted, just a shade under 68% of them, which grades out in the 76th percentile; a positive grade and another indicator that the Nuggets are getting back an offensive weapon who can slice up a defense on his own, instead of having to sharpen himself against Jokic every night.

Murray has displayed excellent patience and awareness of the defense as a driver.

Monte gets stuck after picking up his dribble and Murray comes to get the ball. Jokic shows the dive but backs out to screen for Murray. Wannamaker avoids the screen and extends himself over Jokic, allowing Murray to cross over and get Brad on his hip after an in-and-out dribble. From there he sticks Brad behind him and gets a wide open lay up.

Even when he picks up his dribble he can rely on his footwork to create opportunities against similar sized defenders.

Murray drives baseline and looks for the step back jumper. Conley does a soft contest on the pump fake it and that allows Murray to step through for an easy two.

Murray also has good ball skills and change of direction that allow him to seek switches and freeze larger defenders.

Against Anthony Davis, Murray works a series of crossovers and step back moves to push Davis to the hoop until he's able to sneak past him for the easy floater.

Though he mostly gets to the rim on his own accord, I believe that he's even better when he's looking to cut. I could make a 10 minute compilation of Murray's cutting ability and knack for feeling a defender ease up just a little, but if you've ever watch a Jokic Best Passes video you'll have seen a lot of that. It's hard to know which of those is the more impactful part of those plays, so I don't want to dive too deep on that.

All of this culminates in his Finishing Talent grading out in the 85th percentile. That's calculated as a function of how well a player gets to the rim in addition to how well a player finishes at the rim, encompassing his ability with the ball in hand, his off ball movement to get opportunities at the rim, and the conversion rate once he's there in addition to how difficult those looks are.

While not elite that's very good for a guy who is known primarily as a shooter. Despite a lower volume of attempts at the rim compared to many of his positional peers, thanks to his excellent Rim Shot Making which grades out higher than guys like Beal and Durant, his Finishing Talent ends up slightly higher than players like Booker, Butler, Lillard, and Steph Curry.

Whether or not those grades are gospel, he is clearly capable of getting things going towards the rim and cannot be played too far up on by his defender.

So he's an elite perimeter shooter and a high level finisher, what about the in-between game?

While there is less data for the mid-range and I bring you no fancy tables, Murray has his spots that he has hit at a great clip for the past two seasons and has become an effective three-level scorer. While it's not at the level of his distance shooting or finishing, it is still steadily improving. He's aware of his limitations and doesn't settle for an abundance of middies, rather he looks to find his best zones and get out if they aren't there.

The last two seasons he hits left side elbow jumpers at around a 50% clip on 200 attempts, good for 90th percentile in that zone and enough to warrant the "high volume" designation, as well as the inside of the right wing and the left baseline.

A lot of his mid-range attempts tend to be end of clock situations in the PNR with Jokic.

Houston is playing at the level of the screen and starching any good look from distance. Murray again uses the plant foot to get some space for a step back fadeaway over Brown. Tough shot.

Additionally in the 20-21 season among high volume mid-range players (> 4 FGA) he was 8th in FG% on non-restricted area shots at a similar rate as Khris Middleton.

For example shots like this where Murray will get into the paint and plant off a log for little turnaround or a this little floater-jumper.

He's also an effective post player at his position, grading out in the 83rd percentile for Post Up PPP.

While he is certainly not a mid-range killer like Durant or DeRozan, he is an effective threat who plays with a great deal of control for a player his age and doesn't overshoot his welcome. He tends to only work the midrange when it can be set up by running off Jokic screens for handoffs or via the PNR. That leads us into the last major part of Murray's offense.

Murray's Playmaking

What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think about the Nuggets offense? Jokic of course, but more specifically Jokic's passing. That's what I think of at least. It's a system built around this Serbian supercomputer who makes every decision for the offense, finds cutters and shooters from impossible angles, passes guys open when they would otherwise not be, who just lead the league in touches and passes by a mile, and is so fundamental to the ability for a scoring opportunity to be created for his team that last year in the minutes he was off the floor the Nuggets played like an 18-win team, good for dead last in the league.

That historically bad scoring in non-Jokic minutes for Denver was due in large part to a lack of playmaking. Morris, while a good traditional point guard is not a great plate setter, or a dangerous scoring option that can use that to open up his passing. Barton is a notoriously sloppy passer, Hyland has talent and a good eye but was a rookie, and Facu while being one of the best passers on the entire planet is so unthreatening as a scorer that teams can simply play the pass with him 100% of the time.

That brings us to the return of Murray, who is a little bit of everything that those guys are not.

While he's not CP3, or Trae, or Doncic, he might be a much better passer and playmaker than he is perceived to be. That's huge for a Nuggets team that desperately needs to find a way to lighten the load for Jokic both physically and mentally. The Nuggets will not get away from Jokic-ball, and he will certainly still be the main distributor and decision maker, but Murray coming back means that much like his scoring, the Nuggets will once again have guy to lean on and offload playmaking responsibility to.

Let's dive back into some data and look at playmaking grades.

I imagine that many of you are as surprised as I am at how well Murray grades out as a playmaker. This is peppered with more A's than Oakland as he rests comfortable between 80th and 90th percentile on most things. Then there's that D plastered up at the top there for RA Ast Pts/75. That D on its could signify that Murray is a bad passer for his role, which leads me to needing to preface the above data.

This is graded against all other players in the league as opposed to only guards or primary ball handlers. Once it's filtered down to just other point guards, everything except for Role Adj Ast Pts, Passing Versatility, and Scoring Gravity go down considerably for Murray. I chose to grade this out against all other players because for the Nuggets, Murray does not function as their point guard the way that PGs on any other team do bur rather a secondary playmaker. That D grade is a result of the role adjustment that compares him to guys like CP3 and Trae.

Since Jokic is the Nuggets analog to those guys, as in he's their primary distributor when he is on the floor, Murray functions more as a combo guard and thus does not see a high volume of situations as a distributor. A similar situation to Brunson in Dallas and in this upcoming season for Dejounte Murray in Atlanta.

With that being said when compared to the rest of the league, Murray grades out extremely favorably as a playmaker. When he does pass the ball it tends to result in good scoring opportunities for his team, as illustrated by Pot. Assists per 100 Passes. Passing Creation Volume suggests the same thing but is calculated a bit differently.

Passing Efficiency "looks at High Value Assists and Bad Pass TO numbers along with Ball Control % to gauge which players are more efficient with their possessions and time to create scoring opportunities for teammates." That shows that when Murray has the ball in his hands he's not ball stopping, he's not turning it over, and when it leaves his hands as a pass it results in good looks.

Passing Versatility "looks at Synergy passing data on assists from scoring Play Types and SportRadar data on assist locations to gauge who is passing from what types of looks to reward more well rounded passers." This is an excellent grade for Murray and highlights that he's capable of converting on many different types of passes all over the floor, and not just dump offs to Jokic or swing passes around the perimeter.

Let's look at some of that versatility.

Here Murray misses a shot and relocates for the rebounder to find him on the perimeter.

Instead of forcing up a contested shot, Murray pump fakes to Morris who is open to his left causing Williams to go for the steal, and rockets a pass across the court to an open corner three.

Here we can see Harris cut down the middle thanks to some lousy Houston D after passing to Murray. Murray walks into a one handed 30ft lob to Harris that lands across the hoop. And 1.

Here's another Gary Harris and 1, this time showing off Murray's passing in transition as he lobs it overhead down the court and falls out of bounds.

This time Murray finds himself in a bit of a jam after stumbling at the top of the key, but keeps control of the ball and recovers for a nice bounce pass to a cutting Green.

Nuggets run a set where the bigs set a double screen as Murray comes across. Hartenstein sets a pick on Murray's initial defender who picks up Green once Murray clears the screens. Murray lobs a one handed hook pass over the defense to an open Green for three.

While the pass isn't particularly impressive Murray shows good court awareness here as he motions for MPJ to clear out and drag the fronting CP3 away, giving Jokic an easy mismatch and make.

Murray is operating out of the high post with Schroder playing way up on him. With his back to the basket Murray catches a cutting MPJ in the paint with a nice across the body bullet.

Here Murray finds MPJ cutting again this time off the dribble, faking the jump shot, and connecting mid-air.

His most common passes are to Jokic in the PNR, so a big part of getting Jamal back is being able to run that and force defenses to have to decide how to guard two potent scorers who are perfectly in-tune with each other.

Jokic and Murray: "Perfectly in-tune?"

In the 18-19 season Jokic had 147 assists solely to Murray, the 11th most assists between two players. 17th place was Murray's 123 assists to Jokic, a combined 270 good for first among all NBA duos. The next season season Jokic had 129 assists to Murray, the 3rd most between two players, while Murray's 116 to Jokic were good for 9th place. A combined 245 and good for 1st among all duos once again. In the 20-21 season before injury, the duo were on pace to do it again.

While Jokic is the premier playmaking talent in the league, grading out no lower than 97th percentile in any relevant playmaking statistic and a 100th percentile overall, that supercomputer becomes a quantum computer when you hook Murray up to it. While on his own Murray is not one of the league's best facilitators, the chemistry between the two has allowed him to be an elite passer when getting the ball to Jokic.

Jokic's offense and the Murray/Jokic PNR has been dissected enough by major outlets so I won't overdo it. If you want to know more about it I'd suggest watching these two videos about him. It's remarkably great. Those two know how to get the ball to each other under any circumstance and both take advantage of how the other player bends a defense.

I do want to point out as it is Murray-relevant and not talked about as too much, that Jamal is a fantastic screener for his position. He grades out in the 98th percentile as a Screening Talent, and in the 81st percentile on Roll Impact which is points scored above/below what league average efficiency would yield. He is not just elite as the ball handler, but as the roller for when Jokic is the handler as well. Pick your poison.

Murray's 93rd percentile in Box Creation and 96th percentile in Scoring Gravity both suggest that his presence as a scoring threat is potent enough to open the floor for his playmaking and for his teammates to get open thanks to the defensive attention on him. It grades at a similar level as Booker and Kyrie. That is 1st option level gravity in play, while the defense is already busy dealing with Jokic who essentially doubles both of Murray's values in those respective stats.

Consider for a moment that Jokic was flashing 100th percentile in all of these playmaking and scoring stats last year without his second and third leading scorers. What does Murray's return, a player who far outshines any scorer or playmaker the Nuggets had last year, mean for Jokic? Logic dictates that with Murray on the floor Jokic will see a higher amount of easier shots, which means that after becoming one of four players (Jokic, Curry, Barkley, Dantley) to average 27ppg on 66% TS or higher last year, he could put up even more impressive numbers. At the very least from an efficiency standpoint. That's a terrifying thought for the rest of the league.

Jokic's gaudy numbers aside, the Nuggets will be overjoyed for what this means for their 4th quarter and crunch time offense that struggled to replicate the 4th quarter and closing-time success that they had found in previous years. Denver can expect a return to form with Murray back, as the Jokic-Murray two man game was the bread and butter of their late game offense and resulted in them being two of the top five clutch performers in the league.

Jokic and Murray were both top five clutch scorers in 20-21?

Incredibly, yes. That year Jokic was 2nd in the league in FGM on average in the clutch, defined as "when the scoring margin is within 5 points with five or fewer minutes remaining in a game." He had 1.5 FGM on 49.5 shooting. Murray was 4th in the league with 1.4 FGM on 50.9% shooting, including a blistering 57% from distance and a perfect 100% from the line. The only player to not miss a FT in the clutch.

Summation Of Murray's Offense

As a perimeter shooter, he grades out as one of the very best in the league. He is in an All-NBA tier as a 3PT shot maker when grading for difficulty of the shots attempted. He is one of the best 3PT shot creators in the league, 98th percentile among all players, and gives the Nuggets a tier-1 scorer from distance with the ball in his hands, coming off a screen, or spotting up where he is in the 99th percentile among all players at a blistering 1.26 points per possession.

As a finisher he approaches All-Star caliber shot making as he grades out in the 92nd percentile and the 91st percentile in adjusted FG% at the rim. While he won't take as many shots at the rim as a number of other elite scorers, he is excellent in the attempts he takes, and is one of the better tough shot makers in the league at the rim. He grades out in the 90th percentile across all positions for floaters and in the 91st percentile for One on One Talent.

In the mid-range Murray is is a capable scorer who does not settle for difficult shots. He is good at finding the zones where he is most comfortable and getting the space needed for a shot, especially off of screens or the PNR. He is a serious threat in the non-restricted paint area, and has a solid post game and great footwork for his position. He also grades out in the 89th percentile as passer in the post.

Speaking of passing, he may be one of the more underrated playmakers in the NBA. Thanks to his elite 96th percentile Scoring Gravity and 93rd percentile Box Creation, he grades out as an excellent playmaking talent who reliably makes a variety of high-value passes from all over the court. He is a luxury for the Nuggets as a secondary PG/facilitator and will be able to take the every-possession burden off of Jokic's shoulders and help get guys involved.

In addition to all of this, Murray's return is also spells of one of the most effective two-man games in the league. The Murray-Jokic PNR is a nightmare for defenses to deal with and perhaps the most consistent late-game bucket generator in the league. Murray grades out in the 97th percentile as a PNR Ball Handler, and in the 20-21 season before going down joined Jokic as one of the four best clutch scorers in the league.

When considering how well those two play with each other in addition to everything else, his impact on the Nuggets offense cannot be overstated.

But what about his defense?

While defense may be more systematic in the NBA than ever before, a great perimeter defender can still make a huge difference in a game and a bad one can really mess it up. While Murray's certainly no Jrue Holiday on that side of the ball, he's also no Trae Young. He was blossoming into a solid defender at his position before going down and has good hands, good body control, good defensive instincts, and above average athleticism. For a 23 year old scorer I would consider his defense at this point to be very solid.

Here's what some of the Bball Index grading has to say about him.

Before diving in to all of that, I will acknowledge that even defensive metrics that use tracking data are not remarkably reliable. Given the different defensive philosophies of teams, the challenges of automating the assigning blame for things like a missed rotations, and a hundred other things, it's challenging to model and grade out individual defenders.

With that being said we can still look at a few of these things as they pertain to Murray.

He gambles a fair amount, part of which comes from playing at the level of the screen with Jokic, and those two poking away the ball like they're trying to get a cracked egg shell out from the yolk. He's 90th percentile for steals, 61st percentile via Pickpocket Rating which is steals on-ball, and grades favorably in Deflections and Passing Lane Defense as well. He's not The Glove but grading out in the 87th percentile in Real Adj TO Rate is solid.

Here Murray sticks in front of a driving Cory Joseph by sliding his feet and poke steals the ball away from him as he gets into the paint.

With Steph guarding his dribble before trying to get the ball to Draymond Murray reaches a hand in and ends up getting in good position to pick it off on the dump in.

Trying to front Anthony Davis on the perimeter as a high pass comes in from LeBron. Murray doesn't concede and gets the one handed pick off up at the apex of his jump. Very cornerbacky.

Here Garland gets Murray on his hip and drives baseline but Murray sticks close and pokes the ball behind him for the steal, leading to a 2-on-1 fast break as Barton sails a pass out of bounds that almost take Murray's head off.

While these plays can certainly be attributed to miscues on the part of the offensive player as well, it highlights Murray's activity on the defensive end and good ball skills.

Murray also grades out okay as an Off-Ball Chaser and Screen Navigator.

A chaser is a guard who is locked on a shooter/cutter on the outside and is not tasked with much help defense when in that role. Think Lu Dort or KCP. Murray stays alert and active even when off-ball and rarely falls asleep on a defender or a rotation.

Just as valuable if not moreso is the point of attack defender's ability to navigate screens. With as much PNR as teams like to run now, being able to get around those and stick with your man is something that can make an offense's job a lot harder.

Here Murray gets around the Looney screen that Curry is using and ends up in good position to block his shot.

This year Jrue was the highest graded ball screen navigator by a mile, but Murray's +1.70 grade would have netted him the 4th best grade in the NBA among guards who played starter-level minutes. Is he that good? Probably not, but it is definitely one of his best defensive skills.

What about that on-ball perimeter defense rating?

A 68th percentile "B" feels about right given that he's in the 92nd percentile for time spent guarding the highest usage and most offensively active players in the league.

Here he picks up Paul George on the wing who has space to work, sticks with him, and forces the offensive foul.

Murray stays right in front of a charging Westbrook and gives a great contest at the rim before Lopez skies in for the put back.

Clarkson looks to get to the rim with the shot clock winding down but Murray moves his feet well and contains the drive and forces a tough shot.

Tatum posts the smaller Murray up but Murray stands firm and Tatum switches to a face up and misses the first of 6 Murray contests and misses for Tatum that quarter.

Overall Murray is a good ball defender for his age and offensive burden and has room to grow.

So, his defense is good enough then?

Good enough is a fair way to put it. He's a slightly above average on-ball defender, an active and aware turnover forcer, and a very good screen navigator. He rebounds well for his size, he likes to take the challenge of guarding the best players and tends to be a more engaged defender when he does, and does not commit many fouls.

Had the Nuggets come back this year with Barton as his starting POA defense companion I'm not sure but the additions of KCP and Brown let Murray have an above average perimeter defender next to him at all times. The Nuggets defense overall should improve greatly from last year and part of that is will be due to Murray replacing Barton/Morris as one of the two main perimeter defenders.